New To Las Vegas

Declaration of Independence

With the semiquincentennial of the United States hard at hand, everyone, it seems, is opining on the history of the United States over the past 250 years. Much of the commentary touches on race and inequality, which certainly is fair enough.

So why not me? I’m a long-time financial journalist and a serious student of history since my days at dear old Rutgers. Accordingly, I offer my two cents explaining the course of American events since our official founding with the Declaration of Independence in 1776.

Here’s the Cliffs Notes version: Boom, bubble and bust. To me, New To Las Vegas, a place where for many gamblers it’s BB&B every day, it’s that simple.

Since John Hancock penned his famous signature on that famous parchment, the U.S. has experienced dozens of boom-bubble-and-bust cycles. They have been of various durations and intensities, lasting on average about five years. Some now are more famous than others. Indeed, the U.S. has rarely gone more than a half-decade without being caught up in a BB&B. Their patterns are remarkably similar. In my view, we’re clearly in yet another bubble right now.

Not every downturn has been caused by a bubble. Over time, the booms and bubbles have been more than the busts. So the net result of all the completed cycles have benefited the overall American economy. But not everyone in it, and not equally. It’s often been the Federal Governmental response–essentially encouraging the booms and bubbles, then trying to deal with the fallout from the busts in a way that protects the rich far more than the poor–that has helped create the great political and economic divide we now have in our country.

It’s the same old story.The history of BB&Bs explains most everything and provides lessons for today. So let’s start a loooong walk down Forgotten Memory Lane. Continue reading →